![Native[risk]](http://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/65704856a75e450a6d17d647/f3aa0ca7-8a4d-4034-992f-9ae514f1127e/Native+risk_logo-invert.png?format=1500w){kind=logo}
#57 - Stop trying to predict fraud. Do this instead.
Every fraud vendor's pitch deck includes the word "proactive".
Proactive fraud detection. Proactive risk management. Proactive defense.
And every time I hear it, I cringe a little.
Here's the uncomfortable truth: proactive fraud prevention doesn't exist. At least not in the way everyone thinks it does.
When fraud teams talk about being "proactive", they usually mean one thing: using AI/ML to predict attacks before they happen.
The logic seems sound–train a model on past fraud patterns, deploy it in real-time, and boom, you're stopping fraud before it materializes, right?
Right?...
Except that these models are trained on past patterns. Which makes them, by definition… reactive.
Yes, models can react faster than humans. Yes, they can spot patterns we'd miss. But they're still reacting to what fraudsters have already done.
And when a genuinely novel attack comes? Your "proactive" algorithm is just as blind as you are.
Side note: For those thinking “but what about unsupervised learning and anomaly detection models?” Show me one case where the accuracy is good enough without human supervision…
But here's what most teams miss:
There is a way to be genuinely proactive in fraud prevention. It just has nothing to do with predictive analytics.
It's about building the capacity to quickly respond when attacks happen (which they will). It’s called “having a strategy”.
And the best part? It only takes one hour a week. Yes, one hour.
Today I want to show you what real proactive work looks like, and why it's more valuable than any predictive model could be.
Why defenders can never have the initiative
There's a concept in military theory that applies perfectly to fraud prevention: the attacker always has the initiative, the defender is always reactive.
Think about it:
Fraudsters choose when to attack, where to attack, and how to attack. They pick the vulnerability. They pick the timing. They have the element of surprise.
And your job as the defender? React fast and effectively.
This isn't pessimism. It's reality.
And once you accept it, you can stop wasting resources chasing the impossible (prophesying fraud) and start investing in what actually works: building capacity to respond.
No amount of AI changes this fundamental asymmetry. You're not playing offense. You're playing defense. And in defense, "proactive" just means "ready to react quickly".
The one-hour framework for proactive fraud prevention
As said, true proactive fraud prevention isn't about prediction. It's about preparation.
Specifically, it's about avoiding the organizational failures that turn manageable attacks into catastrophes: the vendor you're locked into that can't adapt, the critical system only one person understands, the team that lacks that one critical skill.
These disasters are preventable. And preventing them takes one hour a week, focused on three areas (or as I like to call them–the three Ps): Platform, People, and Process.
Platform (your architecture): One hour a week, you prevent architectural disasters.
Map which vendors you use and which capabilities overlap. Document where systems don't talk to each other–can your payment fraud system see the KYC risk score from 10 minutes ago? The goal isn't "best-in-class" for every component. It's architectural simplicity that lets you respond fast.
What you're avoiding:
People (your capabilities): One hour a week, you prevent organizational disasters.
Document which teams own which fraud vectors and how they collaborate. Map skill gaps that create dependencies on single employees or, even worse, external parties. And be honest with yourself–do you have a clear vision of how this would scale?
Process (your operations): One hour a week, you prevent operational disasters.
Write a playbook for your last incident while it's fresh. Document who makes which decisions during attacks. Define clear guidelines for vendor selection that leave no room for bias. Train your team to treat guidelines as living artifacts so they’re always just a step behind fraudsters, not ten.
What you're avoiding:
Why this works better than chasing prediction
Notice something about this framework? None of it promises to stop the next attack. In fact, don’t worry about the next fraud attack, your team will manage it. One way or another.
Instead, focus on incrementally laying the groundwork for the future.
And I’ll let you in on a secret: If you have three hours a week to spend on it, that’s great. But one hour is enough.
Can you find one hour a week to future-proof your business?
If so, here’s how to get started:
Week 1: Document all your different vendors and where they are integrated. Identify duplicates and optimization potential.
Week 2: Map all your present and future products and user journeys–what fraud vectors are relevant to your business, and where should you build defenses?
Week 3: Compare your vendor map from week 1 to the fraud vectors map from week 2–do you spot any holes in your defense? Plan by when you’ll need to close them.
Week 4: Imagine your business is 10x its current size. Is it clear for you how to scale the team? What to automate? How to organize people? Create a blueprint and bulletproof it with your team.
Four weeks, four hours, and you've built more organizational resilience than any predictive model will ever give you.
This is where you can be one month from now.
The strategic shift
Being strategic in fraud prevention doesn't mean you need to spend a lot of money or time.
It means doing the quiet work that prevents emergencies from becoming catastrophes. Brick by brick, week by week.
It means building organizational resilience, not going on a shopping spree for new, shiny tech.
It means accepting that fraudsters will always have the initiative.
Stop trying to be proactive tactically. You can't. Start being proactive at building your strategic capacity to react.
What's one thing you could map out this week in one hour? Hit reply and tell me.
In the meantime, that’s all for this week.
See you next Saturday.
P.S. If you feel like you're running out of time and need some expert advice with getting your fraud strategy on track, here's how I can help you:
Free Discovery Call - Unsure where to start or have a specific need? Schedule a 15-min call with me to assess if and how I can be of value.
Schedule a Discovery Call Now »
Consultation Call - Need expert advice on fraud? Meet with me for a 1-hour consultation call to gain the clarity you need. Guaranteed.
Book a Consultation Call Now »
Fraud Strategy Action Plan - Is your Fintech struggling with balancing fraud prevention and growth? Are you thinking about adding new fraud vendors or even offering your own fraud product? Sign up for this 2-week program to get your tailored, high-ROI fraud strategy action plan so that you know exactly what to do next.
Sign-up Now »
Enjoyed this and want to read more? Sign up to my newsletter to get fresh, practical insights weekly!
